Cox Automotive forecasts that U.S. new-vehicle sales will bounce back in July, nearing a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.0 million, a slight increase from last year’s 15.9 million pace and a significant recovery from June’s low of 15.3 million.
Despite this rebound, July’s sales volume is expected to decline by 1.3% year-over-year, totaling around 1.29 million units.
The reported disruptions in dealership point-of-sale software in late June hampered sales and reporting, but many transactions lost to that month are anticipated to be captured in July’s figures.
Fleet sales remain an unpredictable factor that could further influence the overall sales pace. The report emphasizes that while July should reflect improved market conditions, the precise impact of delayed sales and fluctuating fleet activity remains uncertain.
For the year, total new-vehicle sales are projected to reach 15.7 million, marking the highest level since 2019.
